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Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the tension sparked by the announcement of a new 28-article proposal for resolving the conflict appeared – momentarily – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its retaliation: a renewed assault of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.

The Rhythm of Negotiation and Warfare

The succession of opposing developments captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are fought: optimistic declarations are delivered from various governments. Significant resources is expended on restraining particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the key method for achieving "settlement".

Nighttime Reality

As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is capable of detecting rocket firings from Russian territory, a ability provided through up-to-date information. From witness perspectives, military aircraft that had been scrambled to intercept incoming cruise missiles roared overhead – sophisticated military planes delivered to Ukraine by European allies.

Moments later, Kyiv's missile defense thundered: defensive missiles fired to intercept a Russian ballistic missile. This was a modern interception technology at work, probably provided by Western nations. Every firing jolts you unexpectedly, shaking the windows. The moment of terror quickly gives way to grim resignation: possibly the hostile projectile won't hit its mark this time, sparing the city from catastrophe and additional electricity failures.

Persistent Threats

Following this, a large-caliber weapon opened up on a unmanned aircraft in the vicinity, part of a mobile-fire group – probably imported technology. Regrettably, the bullets missed the opposing UAV – it pressed on overhead toward its destination.

Periodically, this continued until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: several casualties, destruction and infrastructure problems in many homes as a result of the night's assault. As typically, everyone still continued their routines – enduring hostilities. But those entire period demonstrated Ukraine's essential dependence on Western support – a need that European nations are clearly incapable to replace in the near term.

Failed Diplomacy

The comprehensive proposal from American leadership sparked intense emotion, controversy and profound anxiety – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and multilateral gatherings.

Every new approach from US leadership unfolds according to the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, succeeds in resisting. They manage the tension but never actually secure success. This pattern will, no doubt, endure.

Strategic Calculations

It is convenient to criticize specific actors of persistently promoting Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. US administration operates on a assumption understood by experienced diplomats: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have lost on the battlefield. The US administration presumes that it is unfeasible to pressure the Kremlin to abandon the areas that it presently holds in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.

The challenge is that while accepting these circumstances, US leadership does nothing to deter Moscow, through diplomacy or military means, from assuming that the situation will not shift further in its advantage in the coming year.

Opposing Positions

Therefore, Russian leadership is certain that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its partners are approaching exhaustion. Their motivation to accept conditions that does not give them the maximum possible gain is almost completely absent. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leadership remains highly assured in the result.

On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still endure, slowly losing lives and land but preventing a complete military breakdown until circumstances change in its benefit.

Present Conditions

Factually, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: personal goals to mediate resolution and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the country's interests against any plan Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their attention does not switch to homefront challenges. And although their mission will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains very improbable that this will alter their fundamental strategy.

These opposing factors are influencing discussions.

Conclusion and Outlook

It took a mere seven days to terminate the 28 points of the most recent proposal. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by American leadership, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with soothing efforts of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all served their function.

While new proposals based on old ideas are approaching, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter negotiation assaults from Washington that are based on Russian demands and reflect particular unwillingness to change the course of events, if they remain united and strengthen their defence capabilities at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the predictable period, mainly require continued Western support.