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Back in 2018, it took just a short phrase to ignite the party's annual gathering and to show the party was becoming disillusioned with its then leader. While not precisely soaring oratory, the phrase met with rapturous applause as delegates rose in an impromptu ovation.

As the commotion died down, Keir Starmer, remained at the lectern, visibly startled. He wasn't really accustomed to his speeches having such an effect. All he had said was: "We are not excluding remain as an option". Context, however, is key.

In that deeply polarized period in 2018, straying from the prepared script in this way was always going to be seen as issuing a challenge to the party leader, who was trying to prioritise leave supporters in working-class seats above the pro-European instincts of his party. With that single address, this grey-suited shadow Brexit secretary underwent a transformation – albeit temporarily – into a risk-taker who would stand up for the party's base against the leadership he later succeeded.

The Shift in Position & Closed Issues

In the years since, the landscape has shifted, not least to Starmer himself. An early move upon assuming leadership in 2020 was declaring the EU question was resolved by the 2019 national vote. And, at the last one, he consistently stressed manifesto “red line” promises that forbade rejoining the EU, the single market or a customs union.

Similar to Corbyn, the PM's approach has been to pursue Brexit-y voters in key seats, despite survey data indicates many of them have passed away or shifted opinion.

Pressure Building on the EU

However, it’s now the prime minister’s turn to be an embattled party leader. While EU relations may not be the boiling pot in UK politics, a lid that has been kept tightly sealed for five years is starting to loosen again.

The Prime Minister and Chancellor have intensified the rhetoric about the devastation caused by Brexit has caused to Britain's economic standing. It’s a useful stick with which to beat the Reform UK leader, who now rarely mentions his flagship policy was once his singular purpose and remains his only real achievement.

And yet, the scale of the damage, reportedly has resulted in an economy that is significantly diminished than if it were still in the EU, towers over the minor adjustments thus far implemented by ministers. Starmer’s so-called re-set deal negotiated with the EU in 2024 provides gains quantified in low decimal points.

Cabinet Divergence & Ambitious Proposals

The chancellor is among those trying to overcome long-standing interior ministry opposition to an expansive version of a growth-enabling youth mobility scheme allowing young people can travel between the UK and the EU to study or work.

The deputy prime minister muses openly about the “self-evident” benefits of joining a customs union with the EU, as several Labour backbenchers, such as the head of the powerful finance committee, last week supported a Liberal Democrat motion on customs union membership.

While Nick Thomas-Symonds, the minister in charge of UK-EU relations, who is now attending every cabinet meeting, insists the firm boundaries remain unchanged, there exist avenues to work around them. A proposal would be to announce the start of negotiations now for a more ambitious agreement, to be featured in the following election platform, to be enacted only after Labour won a new electoral mandate.

Starmer's Fundamental Doubts

However, Starmer has lately been pouring cold water on the idea by warning a return to an EU customs arrangement would “unravel” the commercial agreements with America, which he views as signature achievements of his government.

It is understood that Starmer's doubts go still deeper, stemming from several key concerns.

1. Firstly, he believes a customs pact is now much harder as ministers are actively diverging from EU regulations across a range of sectors, including the environment.
2. Secondly, the prohibitive cost set for the UK to join the EU’s new defence fund and the ensuing failure in talks has convinced British officials that former EU partners are less interested in offering favorable terms with Britain and are more focused on demonstrating that leaving the EU was a mistake.
3. Lastly, America's latest security doctrine, which has been welcomed by Moscow, is viewed by some influential figures in Downing Street as a reason for the UK to maintain distance from the EU.

An Alarming Document and Strategic Considerations

This strange and concerning American strategy paper asserts Europe is threatened by cultural extinction due to immigration. It contains only one reference to Britain, placed beside a proposal that the US government will intervene in our politics to encourage the rise of nationalist movements.

But, far from concluding that this makes the US an undependable ally, the government reportedly fear that deeper EU integration would destabilise geopolitics further by risking fragile US military support for Kyiv, NATO, and other alliances.

Succession Chatter & The Echo of 2018

All of which returns us to the conference of 2018. Starmer has always said his speech was not an attempt to become leader but merely an attempt to preserve the “option” of remain being on the ballot paper. In fact, in those days, Starmer still favoured a tailored trade agreement similar to the one he currently seems to reject.

Observers within Downing Street have noticed that Wes Streeting, who just about everyone assumes would be a candidate in any leadership election, is part of a group of cabinet ministers signaling they desire greater ambition regarding the EU.

Staff for the Deputy Prime Minister, another likely contender in a future race to replace Starmer, maintain she refuses to comment on her position on a customs union as it would merely “escalate unhelpful speculation”.

The Obvious Risk & A Prudent Reminder

The danger is obvious. If Starmer rules out significant moves towards EU alignment, he cedes ground to claim the territory where most of the party's supporters reside.

It would be wise of him to recall the impact just a few words had for him seven years ago. Potential pathways for a big offer on EU relations which the PM should not “rule out”; he should explore them himself, rather than letting rivals makes them his – or her – own.