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Ten years following the UK entered into a hasty public vote that divided the nation and unleashed disorder, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is ready.

That is the message from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Establishments Unprepared

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially tense and seismic public vote.

"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."

Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue

The team have studied the political, financial and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What troubles all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.

"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."

Legal Framework

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is approaching, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there could be a national vote.

Insufficient Serious Debate

Ideological statements for and against unity has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, noted McBride.

"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but very few government figures or activists seek to involve themselves even with the basics. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"

Publication's Method

In the volume, neither author endorses unification or the status quo. They writes two essays that aim for objectivity in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling economic and societal statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.

Discussions range over national emblems, duties, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and encourage discussion.

"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the notion that there may exist valid points on either side."

Parallel Votes

A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters report they prefer unification but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to recognise unionists' UK heritage.

"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.

Probability of Public Vote

The journalist believes a national vote in his era is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a feckless official who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, valid perspectives, he said. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and the other side will ultimately be defeated but all factions has possesses valuable insights to learn from the other's positions."

Request for Wider Discussion

Westminster should join the debate, stated the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."